Author Archives: Bret Rosenthal

About Bret Rosenthal

Interpreting the news that moves markets. Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds

Equity Markets Continue to Bleed. Why? German Stupidity, Volcker Rule and the Carry Trade Unwind

As usual European news leads the way with a ridiculous ’shoot in the foot’ decision coming out of Germany… Merkel will announce, on Wednesday, a financial transactions tax, and a ban on naked short selling on 10 of the “most-important” financial institutions in Germany. Ban also applies to CDS and Euro govt bonds. Will remain in place for an indefinite period of […]

Understanding Recent Equity Market Mayhem: A Tidal Wave of Liquidity Creation Meets a Cavernous Trench of Debt

Over the last couple of weeks we have witnessed a series of conflicting reports from all over the media complex as to why equity markets are under pressure. Predictably, as soon as the markets recover a bit these same pundits come up with all sorts of reasons to cheer.  Needless to say these hysterical reports, bullish or bearish, are entirely […]

Equity Markets Plummet and Bounce: CNBC Reports a Finger is the Culprit…Q: Index or Middle?

The news cycle is moving almost as fast and furious as the equity markets. I have combined commentary from around the web that I feel best represents the issues we are all facing. Needless to say, the CNBC story suggesting a ‘fat finger’ was the cause of the market chaos we witnessed last week is pure tripe…unless of course they […]

Stalking the Bear – Part 4: Paw Prints are Visible

The fourth installment of this ‘Stalking the Bear’ theme brings us face to face with the devastation created by a simple swipe of a claw. If a reader has heretofore been discounting my words as mere hyperbole than I do hope yesterday’s 3% free fall will act as smelling salts. Below you will find five paw prints, I mean charts, […]

Is Quantitative Easing Alive and Well? Evidence Mounts Suggesting the Answer Is Yes

Today, I’d like to address a curious phenomenon developing in the Treasury market. March 31st supposedly marked the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing (Q.E.) phase. We were told the Fed would no longer print money and buy mortgage backed securities. There was, of course, no discussion about the Fed printing money and buying other assets. However, ‘ending Q.E.’ carries […]

GDP Less Than Expected, Inventory Build Coming to an End, Goldman/Paulson Issue Heating Up

I expressed my belief last week via twitter that this GDP number could be interesting. I suggested the number may be less than expected as the inventory build is coming to an end. Now real intrinsic growth will need to surge in order to satiate the appetite of the GDP prognosticators and I believed that would be a tall order.  Well […]

Equity Markets Drop Over 2%, Gold and The US$ rally Together

Yesterday, the equity markets sold off over 2% while the US$ and GOLD moved sharply higher. That’s right, you read correctly, Gold and the US$ moved up together. This action comes as no surprise to the partners of RCM. Over the last year or so, I have explained to anyone willing to listen that the real move higher in Gold […]

IDC & Gartner Confirm Business PC Upgrade Cycle Gains Momentum

Finally, some positive economic news worth highlighting. Below are two independent reports on the computer industry.  Q1, typically a slow period for the industry, has exhibited strong year-over-year growth. This alone would not be surprising as last year was a disaster so comparables were easy. However, Q1 growth added to a strong Q4 suggests a trend is building . This […]

Stalking The Bear – Part 2: A History Lesson: When Equity Prices Ignore Treasury Weakness Trouble Brews

Before I begin, I’d like to make clear the purpose of this post. I am not attempting to call the top of the equity market nor am I suggesting a portfolio should be aggressively short at this time.  Take a good look at the mission statement above. These posts are designed to make you think, stay aware and avoid the […]

Stalking a Bear or a Windmill? Commodity Prices Surge, Inflation Trade Gains Steam

Is it a bear or a windmill we’re stalking? You may find yourself asking that question as the equity markets drift higher seemingly oblivious to a myriad of negative news.  Classic commentary such as “the market climbs a wall of worry” or “the trend is your friend” are being bandied about with increased regularity.  Of course, these sayings are useless […]


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