Tag Archives: CDS
Stock Market Strategy: The More Things Change the More They Stay the Same
I must begin today’s missive with an ebullient congratulations to my good friend Blaine Bell! The wedding in Napa Valley this past weekend was beautiful, the bride radiant and the party atmosphere prodigious. While my computer did make the trip to Napa, it was used for portfolio management only. Any free time this past week was spent in the lovely […]
Stock Market Strategy: Reduce Shorts Expect Equity Market Rally
The Bear is Full Right Now & May Need Time to Digest The Grizzly we stalked in April and found in May has been devouring pathetic bulls for the last six weeks. The time may have arrived for this satiated animal to take a break. Please refer to the chart of the NYSE Composite below for a clear picture of […]
Equity Markets Continue to Bleed. Why? German Stupidity, Volcker Rule and the Carry Trade Unwind
As usual European news leads the way with a ridiculous ’shoot in the foot’ decision coming out of Germany… Merkel will announce, on Wednesday, a financial transactions tax, and a ban on naked short selling on 10 of the “most-important” financial institutions in Germany. Ban also applies to CDS and Euro govt bonds. Will remain in place for an indefinite period of […]
GDP Less Than Expected, Inventory Build Coming to an End, Goldman/Paulson Issue Heating Up
I expressed my belief last week via twitter that this GDP number could be interesting. I suggested the number may be less than expected as the inventory build is coming to an end. Now real intrinsic growth will need to surge in order to satiate the appetite of the GDP prognosticators and I believed that would be a tall order. Well […]
Greek 10 Year Bond Deal Priced, Unique Perspective Into Sovereign CDS Hedge Farce
Greek funding update: Deal complete, interest acceptable, funding crisis averted for now…. New Greek €5 Billion 10 Year Bond Prices At 300 Over Midswaps, 326 bps Over 2020 Bund, Comes With 6.25% Coupon Greek debt chief says bids for 10-year bond at EUR14 bln – DJ DJ reports the Greek government’s offering of 10-year bonds has attracted EUR14 billion […]
A Greek Tragedy of Shakespearian Proportion Continues to Unfold
After a week of credit market histrionics, Monday morning ushers in a moment of calm… Greek spreads ease; Portugal under pressure – WSJ WSJ reports European sovereign CDS spreads were generally tighter Monday, with the cost of insuring Greek and Spanish debt against default falling, although Portugal remained volatile with spreads widening. According to CMA DataVision, Greece’s five-year sovereign credit-default […]
Sovereign Debt Spreads Widen on Greece/Portugal Worries, Equity/Commodity Markets Roiled, Fed Begins to Backtrack
The equity and commodity markets get rocked as Sovereign debt woes resurface. The burning question: Will the dramatic widening of credit spreads in Sovereign debt, beginning to resemble the CDS collapse of 2008 in the private sector, lead to a revisit of a 2008 type credit crisis and all the fallout associated with it?… Greece, Portugal woes intensify – WSJ […]
RCM Reprint: Karl Denninger on CDS and the Vicious Cycle
RCM Comment: The following explanation, while a little esoteric, offers unparalleled insight into a major component of the credit crisis: Karl Denninger- I buy a CDS on GE (a few weeks ago) for a couple hundred basis points ($200,000 per $10 million)The SELLER of that CDS protects against possibly having to pay by shorting whatever he can against that short […]
RCM Editorial: Changing the Rules of the Game with the Stroke of a Pen
Comments by Gary Rosenthal: It has come to our attention that a piece of legislation traveling through Congress contains a little known section that would retroactively render naked Credit Default Swaps(CDS) unenforceable. In other words, with the stroke of a pen Congress would make contracts previously entered into by two willing parties unenforceable. On what legal grounds can Congress do […]
