Tag Archives: US Treasury


Equity Markets Drop Over 2%, Gold and The US$ rally Together

Yesterday, the equity markets sold off over 2% while the US$ and GOLD moved sharply higher. That’s right, you read correctly, Gold and the US$ moved up together. This action comes as no surprise to the partners of RCM. Over the last year or so, I have explained to anyone willing to listen that the real move higher in Gold […]

Greek 10 Year Bond Deal Priced, Unique Perspective Into Sovereign CDS Hedge Farce

Greek funding update: Deal complete, interest acceptable, funding crisis averted for now…. New Greek €5 Billion 10 Year Bond Prices At 300 Over Midswaps, 326 bps Over 2020 Bund, Comes With 6.25% Coupon          Greek debt chief says bids for 10-year bond at EUR14 bln – DJ DJ reports the Greek government’s offering of 10-year bonds has attracted EUR14 billion […]

Lending Falls, Bad Loans Haunt Big Banks, Mass Layoffs Surge, Greece vs California

The equity markets dropped on average 1.5% Monday and this morning another 1.5% decline is underway.  I mentioned, in A Review of the RCM Investment Strategy, the defensive posture we at RCM have taken. I said, “We have deployed our assets in a manner we feel most appropriate for the environment we are experiencing.” The following news items should help illustrate what […]

Credit Markets Warning Signal, Foreign Demand for US Treasury Falls

The following story represents perhaps the largest obstacle facing equity market integrity today.  The previous statement is not hyperbole. The collapse of equity prices in 2008 was presaged by a python-like constriction of credit. If the private sector cannot access credit then business grinds to a halt and as we saw in 2008 economic cataclysm ensues…  Credit markets flash hottest […]

Gold and The COT Short Position, U.S. Treasury Winds Down Money Market Funds Guarantee

I have been asked by a few readers about our thoughts on the COT short position in the Gold market. For those not aware, COT represents the commercial traders in Gold. Conventional wisdom states that if COT has a significant short position look out below. In our opinion this “wisdom” is incorrect. I would like to direct your attention to […]

Important US$/Gold Events, Basel Compliance, “Option” Mortgages to Explode, U.S. Treasury Stealing Premiums? Volcker Calls for Trading Restrictions

Possible important US$/Gold events in the near future:   The G20 meeting in the U.S. city of Pittsburgh on Sept. 24-25:   The equity market rally has gained steam over the last few weeks not because of the much discussed possible economic recovery but because of the falling US$. As the US$ sinks to new lows cash in short term […]

U.S. Debt-Ceiling Fight Looms, UN Demands New Global Currency, China Trade War

I’m not hearing much about this story in the news yet but I suspect the debt-ceiling will become center stage in the weeks ahead. At risk is the fate of the US$ trend. In the unlikely event that congress somehow puts its proverbial foot down and refuses to increase the debt ceiling then no doubt this would stem the slide […]

US$ Decline, T-Bond Prices Decline / Rates Up, CRB Index Down, Precious Metals Higher

By viewing the five charts above, (UUP = US$, TLT = Treasury bonds, CRB = Commodities, GLD = Gold) you have just witnessed a graphical demonstration of the beginning of the stagflation trade. Those of you who read this blog regularly know we have been warning of the inevitable rise of hyper-inflation at a time when a jobless recovery will […]

Obama on the Recession, Fed’s Beige Book, Treasury Auction Results

President Obama says US may be seeing beginning of end of recession -DJ Sure, and the emperor was wearing clothes… ECONX Summary of Fed’s Beige Book Reports suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer, but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to […]

Economy Not in Good Shape; Recent Changes to the Way the U.S. Treasury Tallies Demand at its Bond Auctions

News That Moves Markets   RCM Comment: O.K. we have a lot to get to today, so let’s get started. First, I’ve put together a list of economic numbers recently released to offer more evidence in support of my pronouncement that “the economy is not in good shape”. I know this proclamation is not the favored view at the moment. […]