xfdce NIGHTLY-BUSINESS-REPO-00
Show: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT>
Date: October 31, 2003>
Time: 18:30:00>
Tran: 103100cb.118>
Type: SHOW>
Head: Nightly Business Report>
Sect: Business>
Byline: Paul Kangas, Susie Gharib>
Guest: Derwood Chase>
Spec: Business; Economy>
Time: 00:00:00>
PAUL KANGAS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Wall Street makes it out of the scariest month unscathed. Blue chip stocks end the day higher and the major indices continue their stair-step rise despite Wall Street`s spooky October history.
SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: But our “Market Monitor” guest tonight says he`s still spooked by high valuations. Coming up, our interview with Derwood Chase, president and chief investment officer of Chase Investment Counsel.
KANGAS: An earnings surprise from ChevronTexaco (CVX) sent its stock gushing, we`ll run down the company`s latest quarterly results.
GHARIB: Then, they`re futuristic and fun. But will they catch on with consumers? An update on the market for electric-only cars from the Tokyo Auto Show.
KANGAS: I`m Paul Kangas.
GHARIB: And I`m Susie Gharib. This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday, October 31.
Good evening, everyone and happy Halloween.
More “treats” than “tricks” on Wall Street today: The Dow rose 14 points but the NASDAQ slipped a fraction. Surprisingly though, investors warded off the evil spirits this month and avoided the traditional “October jinx.” All the major stock indexes posted sharp gains in October.
What`s the outlook from here? Suzanne Pratt takes a look back and ahead.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: October is usually considered one of the scariest months for the stock market, but not so this year. Encouraged by better-than-expected corporate profits and a recovering economy, investors gobbled up stocks this month. All of the major market indexes gained solidly in October, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up almost 6 percent.
RONALD HILL, INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN: This month, fairly stable economic growth, stimulative Fed policy, very easy and stimulative fiscal policy all combined to give a good push to revenue growth, profit growth and make investors want to own equities.
PRATT: On a year-to-date basis the blue-chip index is up nearly 1,500 points, or about 17 percent. And, most experts say the bear market is most likely a thing of the past.
HILL: We are I think very much definitely in a new cyclical bull market. Not a bull market likely to go up 18 years like we did from 1982 to 2000, however, another very good year next year most likely as well.
PRATT: While solid earnings growth has clearly powered stocks most recently, experts say an improving economic picture is likely to be the engine for future gains. Just today its was confirmed that the University of Michigan`s consumer sentiment index rose to 89.6 in October from 87.7 in September. And, experts say improving confidence suggests that consumers will spend during the crucial holiday season. On top of that investors got more evidence today that the industrial sector is firing up. The Chicago purchasing managers index expanded to 55 this month from 51.2 in September. A reading above 50 means more firms are expanding business rather than contracting it.
DREW MATUS, SR. MKT. ECONOMIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: New orders are growing, production is growing, inventories are falling, very sharply. And what that means is that those firms are probably going to have to start rebuilding their inventories sooner rather than later, and that`s good news for employment gains going forward.
PRATT: Another piece of good news for investors: Wall Street historians say November is usually one of the best performing months of the year for both the Dow and S&P 500.
Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York
KANGAS: Wall Street opened with modest gains as investors found no unpleasant surprises in the early reports, showing September consumer income rising 0.3 percent while spending fell that much. After a half hour of trading, the Dow was up 40 points and the NASDAQ Index had gained 8 points. Those basically positive reports on consumer sentiment and Midwest business activity helped the market hold its early advance and so did better-than-expected earnings from Cigna (CI) and ChevronTexaco. At noon, the Dow was still up 33 points, the NASDAQ Index posted a 4-point gain. The market turned narrowly mixed in very quiet afternoon trading as many traders made early exits for Halloween festivities. The Dow Industrial Average closed up 14 1/2 points at 9801.12. And the Dow rose every day this week for an overall gain of 218 2/3 points or 2.3 percent. The NASDAQ Index fell almost a 1/2 point today to 1932.21. And for the week it fell twice, rose three times and had a net advance of 66 2/3 points or 3.6 percent. The Standard & Poor`s 500 Index gained 3.77 to 1050.71 today. In the bond market, the 10-year note climbed to 13/32 to 99 20/32, putting the yield at 4.30 percent.
GHARIB: Some closure today on the investment scandals plaguing Wall Street. A federal judge signed off on the $1.4 billion settlement with 10 Wall Street investment firms accused of misleading investors with biased stock research. The firms settled with the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators back in April, pledging to change the way they do business by separating their investment banking and stock research divisions. But the judge said today`s settlement does not close off future lawsuits by investors. Right now investors are focusing on scandals in the mutual fund industry.
Mutual fund companies are under investigation for using questionable trading practices. Today, Iowa and Rhode Island followed the lead of Massachusetts and fired Putnam Investments as their pension fund manager. Earlier this week, Putnam was charged with civil securities fraud in connection with improper trading practices. That will be one of the issues that Congress will address next week when it holds hearings on the mutual fund industry.
Here`s Angela Terrell Heath with a preview of what`s at stake.
ANGELA TERRELL HEATH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Investors aren`t the only ones wondering why the Securities and Exchange Commission didn`t do more to stop late trading and market timing in the mutual fund industry.
PAUL ROYE, DIR. INVESTMENT MGMT., SEC: We are asking ourselves why didn`t catch this sooner, why didn`t we catch it earlier? And we are looking at this and we`re trying to learn from this.
TERRELL HEATH: Paul Roye, the SEC`s top enforcer of mutual funds, says what they did learn is changes need to be made in the industry`s oversight. Roye says by the end of next month the SEC will put forward new rules to crack down on late trading and market timing abuses. The SEC will also take aim at front running by mutual fund portfolio managers, and promises there will be better disclosure of mutual fund fees and commissions. But Roye warns there are costs associated with some of these changes.
ROYE: By trying to eliminate the late trading problems, there may be some investors who don`t have as wide a window of opportunity to put their orders in. But we are trying to cut off this abusive activity. So there are going to be some trade-offs.
TERRELL HEATH: Long-term observers says at this point the SEC has no choice except to look tough on mutual funds. Don Phillips says one obvious change would be to require fund companies to say exactly how much they pay portfolio managers.
DON PHILLIPS, MANAGING DIR., MORNINGSTAR: We know to the penny what Michael Eisner is paid to run Disney (DIS), so fund managers have a good sense of what are Eisner`s incentives in trying to grow Disney over time. Stunningly, that same information is not available to a mutual fund investor.
TERRELL HEATH: The Mutual Fund Industry Association introduced new proposals this week but says the most important reform that could be made is one they proposed to the SEC in 1994. It would require every mutual fund to have a compliance officer that would report to the fund`s board and independent directors.
MATT FINK, PRES., INVESTMENT COMPANY INSTITUTE: It`s not a cure-all but I think overall tough compliance procedures overseen by the fund board will be the best way to address the existing abuses and any other possible abuses. It`s strikes me that is the most important reform that could made.
TERRELL HEATH: Industry watchers say recent events clearly show the fiduciary culture of the mutual fund industry has been watered down. Members of Congress will try to restore that sense of responsibility when they begin their investigation into the industry next week.
Angela Terrell Heath, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
GHARIB: MCI could soon be back in business. Late this afternoon a federal judge approved the company`s reorganization plan and cleared the way for the nation`s third largest telecom firm to emerge from bankruptcy, possibly by the end of the year. MCI, the former WorldCom, filed the largest corporate bankruptcy ever in 2002, when an $11 billion accounting fraud was uncovered. MCI will start fresh almost debt free. It has shed $35 billion in debt as part of its reorganization and will now pay its creditors $0.36 on the dollar to end the process, Paul?
KANGAS: And as you know, Susie, common shareholders of the former WorldCom will get nothing.
GHARIB: That`s right.
KANGAS: Now let`s take a look at our “Stocks in the News” tonight.
On a very active 79.2 million shares, Lucent Technologies (LU) topped the list of activity with a $0.04 loss, a little profit-taking. The stock up nicely yesterday on positive comments from the CEO, Patricia Russo.
Elan Corp. (ELN) was up $0.18.
Pfizer (PFE) moved up $0.72. The board of Pfizer has voted to eliminate the company`s 16-year-old poison pill measure, which was supposed to prevent unsolicited takeovers. New governance at work there.
AT&T Wireless (AWE) was down $0.02.
ExxonMobil (XOM) rebounding $0.28. It was down over a dollar yesterday on disappointing earnings.
And moving along, GE (GE), a $0.13 gain.
NorTel Networks (NT) dropped $0.04.
SBC Communications (SBC) gained a half a dollar.
Marsh & McLennan (MMC) down $1.75. As you heard, Putnam mutual fund, one of the company`s units, is losing business due to those questionable trading practices.
And then a new issue, First Marblehead (FMD), went public today. This company is involved in the facilitation of educational loans, 12 1/2 million shares, IPO offered at 16, it opened at 18 1/2. The high of the day, $22.86, closed pretty close to that high.
CIGNA Corp. (CI) the start of the day in the blue chips, up $9.08. Third-quarter earnings $1.45, same as last year but the Street was looking for only $1.17. And on top of that, the company upped its guidance for not only this year, but next year earnings as well. Smith Barney brokerage upgraded it from hold to buy.
And as we touched on earlier, ChevronTexaco (CVX) moving up $2.54. Third-quarter earnings of $2.02 versus a loss of $0.85 last year. But that does include an accounting benefit from the company`s investment in Dynegy (DYN). From just operations the company`s third-quarter earnings a $1.86. But that was better than the Wall Street estimate of $1.62, far better.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) moved up $0.78. First-quarter earnings very respectably higher, $0.23, up from $0.17 a year ago, $0.04 above the Street estimate. And sales jumped 19 percent.
Church & Dwight (CHD) up $2.17. Prudential Securities upgraded it from neutral to overweight.
And Unitrin (UTR) had a good day, up $2.84. The company is in the insurance and financial services business. Yesterday its president acquired over 35,000 shares through the exercise of options. And today a publication called “Changewave” had very positive comments, including a buy recommendation on the stock.
OM Group (OMG), a specialty chemical company, down $1.45. Yesterday, third-quarter earnings sharply lower, $0.28 versus $0.79. Today Bank of America brokerage downgraded it from buy to just neutral.
Another major casualty, AutoZone (AZO), plunging $7.43. Some of the partners in ESL Investments, a hedge fund which is the largest shareholder in AZO. Well, these fellows plan to sell 5.6 million shares in a public offering.
NASDAQ`s most active, Microsoft (MSFT), edged up $0.02.
Followed by Intel (INTC) with a $0.06 gain.
Cisco (CSCO) rising $0.07.
Amgen (AMGN) gained $0.65.
Applied Materials (AMAT) a $0.09 rise, number five in dollar volume.
Overnite (OVNT), this is a unit of Union Pacific (UNP), and the company is a trucking firm that delivers packages. And it went public, 25 millions shares offered at 19, opened at $21.55. The high of the day, $22.46. It closed much closer to the high than the low.
Qualcomm (QCOM), a $0.53 loss.
InterActive (IACI) fell $1.03.
SINA Corp. (SINA) off $1.69.
Tenth in volume, Dell (DELL), down $0.23.
Sicor (SCRI) up $1.81. TEVA Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), the Israeli pharmaceutical going to acquire for cash and stock worth about $27.35 as of today, 16 1/2 of that is in cash, incidentally.
California Amplifier (CAMP) up $2.96, a huge percentage move. The company increased its third-quarter forecast for earnings from about $0.07 to $0.12 up to $0.13 to $0.17 a share.
CV Therapeutics (CVTX) down $4.82. The FDA may request more clinical information on the company`s chronic angina drug called Ranexa.
And Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a software company, down $2.16. Fourth-quarter earnings-or I should say, a fourth-quarter loss of $0.07 was wider than expected. CIBC World Markets brokerage downgraded it from sector outperform to sector perform and also cut earnings estimates.
And those are the “Stocks in the News” tonight, Susie?
GHARIB: Thanks, Paul.
Sales of electric cars have stalled recently. And major carmakers are scrapping “pure” electric vehicles in favor of gas-electric hybrids and research into hydrogen powered fuel cells. But as Lucy Craft reports from the Tokyo Auto Show, the electric car crusade is still going strong in Japan.
LUCY CRAFT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Electric cars going the way of the Edsel? Don`t tell that to the students and teachers at Japan`s Keio University who designed some of the most unexpected battery-powered vehicles on the planet. Inspired by Japan`s famous high speed mass transport, the bullet train, this pair of sleek cars feature maximum speeds of about 200 miles per hour, the leg room of a limo and, count them, eight wheels to boost stability and control, but without sacrificing the electric car`s main virtue, zero tailpipe emissions.
HIROICHI YOSHIDA, PROFESSOR, KEIO UNIVERSITY (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): This chassis is made of aluminum with all the components built in under the floor. So it`s extremely durable against collisions and highly stable. Each of the eight wheels is powered by an individual motor.
CRAFT: Based on a lithium ion battery, the Keio project flouts conventional wisdom in the U.S. and Japan which holds that electric cars cost too much and can`t drive far enough on a single charge to be practical. The big car makers have all but abandoned electric cars to pursue hydrogen fuel cells, a technology that is years or even decades away from practical use. Keio University says its battery mobile has the driving range of a conventional car and will go on sale in 2006. If the car is mass-produced, say its designers, sticker prices could drop to as low as those for a conventional subcompact.
YOSHIDA: We proved it was possible to build an electric car capable of high performance and high speed. Since the battery is expensive, we decided to target the luxury market, a car designed with the CEO in mind.
CRAFT: Meanwhile, what would happen if a toy-maker decided to go into the car business? of course, cars precious inform enough for Hello Kitty or happy enough to stop traffic and police cruisers.
HIROSHI HASHIMOTO, SALES DIRECTOR, CHORO Q MOTORS (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): The image of electric cars is purely commercial delivery vehicles, but we wanted to offer an electric car appealing to every man. So we chose this cute design.
CRAFT: Takara toy company has already sold 500 units of its one-seater cartoony roadsters which have overcome one of the key flaws of electric cars, costliness. Sticker prices for the Choro Q start at around $10,000, more for options like pastel Kitty accents.
HASHIMOTO: Were we to aim for the same performance as a gasoline-powered car, our electric car would end up costing something like $1 million. So we stripped out functions like air conditioning and a stereo system, but for city driving it`s quiet, non-polluting, easy to maneuver and cheap to operate. So for limited use, it`s perfectly adequate and fun.
CRAFT: Battery-powered electric cars may never rise beyond mere niche products in the world auto industry, but proponents insist that electric cars are not just toys, but remain serious contenders in the quest for environment-friendly transportation.
Lucy Craft, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Tokyo.
KANGAS: Monday, Eliot Spitzer goes to Washington. The New York attorney general talks mutual fund abuses with Congress.
GHARIB: Investors continued to pour money into stock funds during the month of September. The Investment Company Institute, which tracks these numbers, says $17.3 billion were invested into equity mutual funds last month. That was the seventh consecutive month of inflows for stock funds. Some of that money came out of bond funds: Investors withdrew almost $6 billion from bond funds last month. So far this year, almost $100 billion have flowed into stock mutual funds.
KANGAS: The Washington Post Company (WPO) posting a big 58 percent decline in third quarter revenues. The publishing giant earned $2.06 a share, that`s less than half of the $4.99 per share earned in the same period last year. The Post says today`s earnings included $74 million in compensation costs at its Kaplan Educational Services unit. But that same unit also posted a 40 percent jump in revenues, helping Washington Post shares today gain $29.75 to close at $737.41 per share.
GHARIB: Here`s a look now at what`s happening next week: Our Friday “Market Monitor” guest is James Dines, editor of “The Dines Letter.” On the economic calendar: Monday the October ISM manufacturing index and September construction spending come out; Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan testifies on the banking industry in front of the Senate Banking Committee; also on Wednesday, September factory orders; and Friday, it`s the October employment report.
KANGAS: My guest “Market Monitor” this week is Derwood Chase, president of Chase Investment Counsel, a money management firm based in Charlottesville, Virginia.
And welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Derwood. Good to see you.
DERWOOD CHASE, PRES., CHASE INVESTMENT COUNSEL: Thanks very much, Paul.
KANGAS: In your recent visits with us, you have been quite cautious on the stock market because of concerns about its relatively high valuation. Have recent reports showing an improving economy such as yesterday`s huge 7.2 percent jump in third-quarter GDP made you a little less cautious and more bullish?
CHASE: Well, I`m glad to see the economy come through and be responding to stimulative fiscal and monetary policy, but you know, the market doesn`t correlate very well with those outstanding, strong economic reports.
KANGAS: Well, in other words, you still feel it`s a bit highly valued?
CHASE: Yes, we`re worried about valuation. I think the stimulus of the economy is there. And I think this is going to be an earnings-driven market from here on out.
KANGAS: Well, despite your cautious approach to stocks, the recommendations you gave us on your last visit in February did quite well. Let`s have a quick review of what you recommended and how they fared We have SLM (SLM), the old Sallie Mae Corporation, was 36 back there on 28 February, now it`s around the 40 mark, 39 plus change. That`s a nice move. I congratulate you there. Anadarko Petroleum (APC) you like because of the tight natural gas situation, but the stock, after getting to 50 after recommended it, is now down to 43, about 3 points below where it was. What do you think about that?
CHASE: It failed the technical side of our work after our conversation in February and we actually eliminated it.
KANGAS: OK.
CHASE: We still like the company but we eliminated it for technical reasons.
KANGAS: All right. There are two other stocks you recommended back then, Suncor Energy (SU) which has done nicely. It`s up about $3 a share. That`s done decently. And then the big winner, International Game Technology (IGT) was back there just under 20 then, now it`s up almost $33 a share. That`s a huge percentage gain. That one I have really got to compliment you on there. Are you still with it?
CHASE: Yes. That`s, of all the stocks I mentioned, our largest position is in International Game Technology. And we still like that as you know.
KANGAS: And you own it yourself.
CHASE: I do own that stock myself. And they are by far and away the leader in manufacturing of slot machines, particularly the new paperless generation of slot machines. I think the Harrah`s (HET) order for 11,000 machines is the largest one they`ve ever had.
KANGAS: And you are recommending it at this level, is that true?
CHASE: Yes. we`re still holding it and we`re still adding to it for new clients.
KANGAS: All right. I think we have a chart on IGT. Let`s have a look at that. We can see the progress it has made since you recommended it back in February, almost straight on up. And you still like it. You are not afraid of this big jump?
CHASE: Well, I don`t think any of the stocks I`m going to mention today are really cheap but they are getting through our technical screens and they certainly have sound fundamentals.
KANGAS: OK. Let`s have another one that you like.
CHASE: Electronic Arts (ERTS), the world`s largest producer of interactive, entertainment software, and we`re talking about games like Madden football and Tiger Woods golf. They have all the Harry Potter releases as well.
KANGAS: I see.
CHASE: That`s at a pretty solid 20 percent growth rate. And it`s a very strong company. They`ve got cash of $1.7 billion and.
KANGAS: OK. We just have a minute left, do you have more suggestions?
CHASE: Staples (SPLS), which would be the largest office supply retailer. They are doing very well with their North American superstores and their international operations as well as delivery. And finally, TEVA Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) is the largest of all the generic drug manufacturers. They have got about 145 products. And we think over the next three years with 40 billion prescription branded drugs coming off patent that they`ll have great opportunities…
KANGAS: Big news on TEVA, incidentally, I`m sure you`re aware that TEVA is buying Sicor (SCRI), that was out today. Incidentally, TEVA in Hebrew means “nature,” are you aware of that?
CHASE: No, I wasn`t.
KANGAS: Well, let`s hope it`s a natural winner. And you own all of these do you?
CHASE: Well, I own International Game and TEVA. But of course, I own the Chase Growth Fund and the Chase Midcap Growth which owns some of these.
KANGAS: All right. Derwood, thanks very much for being with us.
CHASE: My pleasure.
KANGAS: Derwood Chase, president of Chase Investment Counsel.
GHARIB: Recapping today`s market action, a mild finish to a strong October. The Dow rose 14 points and the NASDAQ lost a fraction. And please be sure to join us at our World Wide Web site, NBR.com.
And that`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday, October 31. I`m Susie Gharib. Good night, everyone. Have a safe and fun Halloween weekend.
And you too, Paul.
KANGAS: And you as well, Susie.
I`m Paul Kangas, wishing all of you the best of good buys.
END
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH e-Media, Inc. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. c 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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