(Bloomberg) Brace yourselves everybody, a recession is coming! Sometime in the next, uh, two years. Or less. Or more. Earlier this week, interest rates on 3-year Treasury notes turned higher than 5-year rates for the first time since the dawn of the previous U.S. recession, back in 2007. This is called an inversion of the yield curve, or at least a small piece of the curve. The Big One will be when 2-year and 10-year Treasury rates swap places, and bond traders are doing their darnedest to make it happen soon, as Robert Burgess points out.
The Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell Us Something
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