{"id":52785,"date":"2016-05-25T09:07:04","date_gmt":"2016-05-25T13:07:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.hedgeco.net\/news\/?p=52785"},"modified":"2016-05-25T09:11:49","modified_gmt":"2016-05-25T13:11:49","slug":"yield-model-model-for-recession-another-zombie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/05\/2016\/yield-model-model-for-recession-another-zombie.html","title":{"rendered":"Yield Model Model for Recession &#8211; Another Zombie?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n(Harvest) One of the key models used by many investors for business cycle analysis is the change in the shape of the yield curve. An inverted curve sends a strong advanced warning signal of a potential slowdown. This  yield curve model can be translated into a probability measure for a recession, but like the Fed equity valuation model, it may be a zombie model.<\/p>\n<p>It walks around in the modeling environment as if it is a lively useful tool, but in reality, it may be dead as a forecasting signal. It is not a zombie because it has not given a signal since the Financial Crisis. It is a zombie because it does not provide a market-based signal of demand and supply for credit along the term structure.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hvst.com\/posts\/62817-yield-model-model-for-recession-another-zombie\">To read this article:<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Harvest) One of the key models used by many investors for business cycle analysis is the change in the shape of the yield curve. An inverted curve sends a strong advanced warning signal of a potential slowdown. This yield curve [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-syndicated"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52785"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52786,"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52785\/revisions\/52786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hedgeco.net\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}