According to a story published in the Financial Times, not everyone believes that London’s status as an international financial center is in jeopardy. In fact, despite the defections of well-known funds BlueCrest Capital and Brevan Howard in recent months, not to mention increases in the tax rates levied on bankers, some of the city’s elite firms are still optimistic that the city’s troubled financial industry will indeed rebound.
In fact, as Savvas Savouri, chief economist at Toscafund Asset Management points out, the city could be poised for tremendous growth in the coming decade for a variety of reasons. Pointing to the economic growth in India, the Gulf, and the Bric nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China), he suggests that London represents a natural “western hub” for these economies. Despite the rapid growth in these emerging markets, these countries still lack the essential infrastructure of a city like London.
As for London’s recent 50 per cent supertax levied on bankers’ bonuses and its threats of increased regulation? Savouri comments, “…taxes are rising and regulation is being tightened elsewhere too.” As if on cue, President Obama last week announced a new program in the US which will tax the major banks nearly $100 billion over the next 10 years.
Savouri predicts that London will add 100,000 financial services positions in the coming decade. He reached this figure by comparing the arrival of the Japanese banks to London some twenty years ago to the anticipated growth of banks from the Bric countries.