Business Insider – Brian Taylor’s Pine River Capital returned 91% in 2009 and in 2010, one of their portfolios, Steve Kuhn’s $1.2 billion portfolio, returned 27% betting on the same strategy.
His bet was basically that the market, which was implying that 60% of U.S. homeowners would refinance their mortgages within one year, was wrong. Kuhn found that in 2003, those numbers had been correct, and predicted that the same wouldn’t happen again.
