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Volatility in the Age of Trump

January 26, 2017 : Permanent Link

(Harvest) Many readers of our investor letters know that Trump’s victory was not a surprise to Artemis… as I observed with fascination how many of friends and family from my birth state of Michigan, most of whom voted for Obama the last two elections, reluctantly admitted in private they were supporting Trump. I cautioned, both in writing and during a speaking engagement at the EQDerivatives Conference in May, that the market was dramatically underestimating the probability of a Trump victory given socio-economic factors and age demographics in swing states like Michigan and Florida.

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